After March 10, 2025 ▪
4
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Bitcoins, often perceived as a refuge in the face of traditional currencies, have been a significant paradox. While the US dollar flourished for 12 years at an unprecedented pace, Crypto-Reine buried. How to explain this regulation? This contradiction hides dark financial mechanisms, neglected indicators and silent clearing with central banks. Jamie Coutts, an experienced analyst of Real Vision, raises the veil on this high -risk fight.
An invisible loop that strangles the crypto
The movement index, the measurement of the volatility of the US state commitments, plays a key role in this equation. Obviously stable shows a lively upward trend.
Why is this essential? American accounts for US Treasury serve as a universal warranty. Their instability forces the institutions to reduce their exhibitions and dry liquidity. Result: narrower market, less favorable to risk assets such as bitcoins.
When the US cash register accounts are shaking, creditors apply decorations (precipitation) to these collaterals.
Coutts compares this to Domino: Every adjustment has impact on credits, investments and ultimately confidence. Bitcoin, despite his position as a theoretical safe, will undergo this will. Institutional investors who were in the throat prefer to destroy their positions rather than navigating in problem waters.
If volatility jumps, central banks could hit. However, their tools are limited. Raising rates would worsen the liquidity crisis; The reduction would feed inflation. Bitcoins, stuck in this game of cats and mice, become a speculative bet … even before the vulnerable dollar.
Another indicator, however, casts light on this unexpected decline: the distribution of business bonds, a mirror of fears from the market.
A spirit signal that panicks bitcoin
For three weeks, trade bonds have expanded – a gap between their revenues and those of us that were charged.
Historical signal: Every time this phenomenon occurred, Bitcoin reached the peak before withdrawal. Couts considers this to be a disturbing formula. Investors expect the risk of defects, flew to safety … and leave unrealistic assets.
The market often works for mimicry. When institutional funds reduce their exposure to Crédit, hedge funds follow, then individuals.
Bitcoin, a sacrifice of the collateral, is perceived as an asset of “last resort” too volatile. A vicious circle is formed: less liquidity → less buyers → price drop → panic seller.
Washing DXy (dollar index) should be under bitcoins. But in 2024 the rules changed. ETF Spot, minor and accumulation strategies (such as Michael Saylor) create a structural demand. But that is not enough. For what? Because the main players, predating the bankruptcy, prefer cash … even in weak dollars.
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Evariste, fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, has not stopped documenting on this topic. If his first interest focused on trading, he now tries to actively understand all cryptocurrency progress. As an editor, he tries to permanently provide high quality work that reflects the condition of the sector as a whole.
Renunciation
The words and opinions expressed in this article are involved only by their author and should not be considered investment counseling. Do your own research before any investment decision.